Approximate disease dynamics in household-structured populations.

We argue that the large-dimensional dynamical systems which frequently occur in biological models can sometimes be effectively reduced to much smaller ones. We illustrate this by applying projection operator techniques to a mean-field model of an infectious disease spreading through a population of households. In this way, we are able to accurately approximate the dynamics of the system in terms of a few key quantities greatly reducing the number of equations required. We investigate linear stability in this framework and find a new way of calculating the familiar threshold criterion for household systems

Effect of a single dose of Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii on the occurrence of porcine neonatal diarrhoea

Piglet neonatal diarrhoea is an important issue in modern pig production and is linked to increased mortality and poor growth rates, affecting long-term pig health, increasing use of medication and cost of production. Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii (SB) is a probiotic yeast with documented clinical efficacy in the prevention and treatment of diarrhoeal diseases in humans. The objectives of the current study were to evaluate the effect of SB on occurrence and severity of neonatal diarrhoea in piglets, mortality and growth rate. Forty-six litters (606 piglets) were randomly allocated to a control or SB treatment (n=23 per treatment). Within 24 h of farrowing, piglets assigned to the SB treatment received a single oral dose of a paste containing 3.3×109 CFU of SB CNCM I-1079. Piglets from the control litters received a placebo paste. Piglet weight, mortality and diarrhoea were recorded up to day 7 of age. It was shown that numbers of diarrhoea days were significantly correlated with increased mortality rate and reduced weight gain (P<0.05). SB treatment had no effect on growth or mortality in diarrhoeic litters. However, SB-supplemented litters had significantly lower faecal scores, indicating firmer faeces (P<0.01) and fewer numbers of diarrhoeic days (P<0.01) during the 1st week of life. Reduction in the number of diarrhoeic litters compared with the control group was observed following the probiotic administration (P<0.05). These results highlight the detrimental effects of neonatal diarrhoea on pre-weaning performance and suggest that SB, by reducing diarrhoea duration and severity, has the potential of improving enteric health in the early stages of life in pigs

Mitochondrial haplotypes reveal low diversity and restricted connectivity in the critically endangered batoid population of a Marine Protected Area

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was supported by NatureScot, Scottish Government project SP02B, a Heredity Fieldwork Grant of the Genetics Society, and Save Our Seas Foundation project SOSF 470. We would like to thank Leigh Taylor, Ronnie Campbell and Roger Eaton for skippering the sampling charters in the Marine Protected Area and all anglers who provided skate recapture data. Thanks to Fenella Wood and Danielle Sloan for assisting on charter trips. Further, thanks go to Marine Scotland Science (Francis Neat), the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Vicky Bendall and Stewart Hetherington), and the University of St Andrews for providing tissue samples and Lauren Smith and Dan Wise for contributing samples of egg cases.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI data, and limited evidence to inform on potential clearance of LTBI. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that approximately 1.7 billion individuals were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) globally in 2014, just under a quarter of the global population. Investment in new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of those with LTBI at risk of progressing to disease is urgently needed to address this latent reservoir if the 2050 target of eliminating TB is to be reached

Trial protocol OPPTIMUM : does progesterone prophylaxis for the prevention of preterm labour improve outcome?

Background Preterm birth is a global problem, with a prevalence of 8 to 12% depending on location. Several large trials and systematic reviews have shown progestogens to be effective in preventing or delaying preterm birth in selected high risk women with a singleton pregnancy (including those with a short cervix or previous preterm birth). Although an improvement in short term neonatal outcomes has been shown in some trials these have not consistently been confirmed in meta-analyses. Additionally data on longer term outcomes is limited to a single trial where no difference in outcomes was demonstrated at four years of age of the child, despite those in the “progesterone” group having a lower incidence of preterm birth. Methods/Design The OPPTIMUM study is a double blind randomized placebo controlled trial to determine whether progesterone prophylaxis to prevent preterm birth has long term neonatal or infant benefit. Specifically it will study whether, in women with singleton pregnancy and at high risk of preterm labour, prophylactic vaginal natural progesterone, 200 mg daily from 22 – 34 weeks gestation, compared to placebo, improves obstetric outcome by lengthening pregnancy thus reducing the incidence of preterm delivery (before 34 weeks), improves neonatal outcome by reducing a composite of death and major morbidity, and leads to improved childhood cognitive and neurosensory outcomes at two years of age. Recruitment began in 2009 and is scheduled to close in Spring 2013. As of May 2012, over 800 women had been randomized in 60 sites. Discussion OPPTIMUM will provide further evidence on the effectiveness of vaginal progesterone for prevention of preterm birth and improvement of neonatal outcomes in selected groups of women with singleton pregnancy at high risk of preterm birth. Additionally it will determine whether any reduction in the incidence of preterm birth is accompanied by improved childhood outcome

A Factorization Law for Entanglement Decay

We present a simple and general factorization law for quantum systems shared by two parties, which describes the time evolution of entanglement upon passage of either component through an arbitrary noisy channel. The robustness of entanglement-based quantum information processing protocols is thus easily and fully characterized by a single quantity.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Evaluation of Xpert® MTB/RIF and ustar easyNAT™ TB IAD for diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis of children in Tanzania : a prospective descriptive study

Fine needle aspiration biopsy has become a standard approach for diagnosis of peripheral tuberculous lymphadenitis. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF and Ustar EasyNAT TB IAD nucleic acid amplification assays, against acid-fast bacilli microscopy, cytology and mycobacterial culture for the diagnosis of TB lymphadenitis in children from a TB-endemic setting in Tanzania.; Children of 8 weeks to 16 years of age, suspected of having TB lymphadenitis, were recruited at a district hospital in Tanzania. Fine needle aspirates of lymph nodes were analysed using acid-fast bacilli microscopy, liquid TB culture, cytology, Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT. Latent class analysis and comparison against a composite reference standard comprising "culture and/or cytology" was done, to assess the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT for the diagnosis of TB lymphadenitis.; Seventy-nine children were recruited; 4 were excluded from analysis. Against a composite reference standard of culture and/or cytology, Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT had a sensitivity and specificity of 58 % and 93 %; and 19 % and 100 % respectively. Relative to latent class definitions, cytology had a sensitivity of 100 % and specificity of 94.7 %.; Combining clinical assessment, cytology and Xpert MTB/RIF may allow for a rapid and accurate diagnosis of childhood TB lymphadenitis. Larger diagnostic evaluation studies are recommended to validate these findings and on Xpert MTB/RIF to assess its use as a solitary initial test for TB lymphadenitis in children

Use of low-dose oral theophylline as an adjunct to inhaled corticosteroids in preventing exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health-care costs. An incomplete response to the anti-inflammatory effects of inhaled corticosteroids is present in COPD. Preclinical work indicates that 'low dose' theophylline improves steroid responsiveness. The Theophylline With Inhaled Corticosteroids (TWICS) trial investigates whether the addition of 'low dose' theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids has clinical and cost-effective benefits in COPD. METHOD/DESIGN: TWICS is a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in primary and secondary care sites in the UK. The inclusion criteria are the following: an established predominant respiratory diagnosis of COPD (post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in first second/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] of less than 0.7), age of at least 40 years, smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, current inhaled corticosteroid use, and history of at least two exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics or oral corticosteroids in the previous year. A computerised randomisation system will stratify 1424 participants by region and recruitment setting (primary and secondary) and then randomly assign with equal probability to intervention or control arms. Participants will receive either 'low dose' theophylline (Uniphyllin MR 200 mg tablets) or placebo for 52 weeks. Dosing is based on pharmacokinetic modelling to achieve a steady-state serum theophylline of 1-5 mg/l. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg once daily (or placebo once daily) will be taken by participants who do not smoke or participants who smoke but have an ideal body weight (IBW) of not more than 60 kg. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg twice daily (or placebo twice daily) will be taken by participants who smoke and have an IBW of more than 60 kg. Participants will be reviewed at recruitment and after 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is the total number of participant-reported COPD exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids or antibiotics during the 52-week treatment period. DISCUSSION: The demonstration that 'low dose' theophylline increases the efficacy of inhaled corticosteroids in COPD by reducing the incidence of exacerbations is relevant not only to patients and clinicians but also to health-care providers, both in the UK and globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27066620 was registered on Sept. 19, 2013, and the first subject was randomly assigned on Feb. 6, 2014

Effect of promoter architecture on the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression

According to recent experimental evidence, the architecture of a promoter, defined as the number, strength and regulatory role of the operators that control the promoter, plays a major role in determining the level of cell-to-cell variability in gene expression. These quantitative experiments call for a corresponding modeling effort that addresses the question of how changes in promoter architecture affect noise in gene expression in a systematic rather than case-by-case fashion. In this article, we make such a systematic investigation, based on a simple microscopic model of gene regulation that incorporates stochastic effects. In particular, we show how operator strength and operator multiplicity affect this variability. We examine different modes of transcription factor binding to complex promoters (cooperative, independent, simultaneous) and how each of these affects the level of variability in transcription product from cell-to-cell. We propose that direct comparison between in vivo single-cell experiments and theoretical predictions for the moments of the probability distribution of mRNA number per cell can discriminate between different kinetic models of gene regulation.Comment: 35 pages, 6 figures, Submitte